As a successor to the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) which elapsed in December 2020, the National Development Plan (NDP) spanning from 2021-2025 is consistent with the Federal Government of Nigeria’s pursuit of the socio-economic transformation of our country as envisioned in the Nigeria Agenda 2050. The NDP also provides an opportunity for forging and developing strong partnerships between the public and private sector as both sectors will invest a total of N348.1 trillion to see the plan to fruition.

Taking a cue from the achievements of and the lessons learned from the ERPG, the NDP is designed to use a multi-sectoral approach to implement simultaneous and coordinated interventions.

The plan was developed with 5 strategic objectives:

  • To establish a strong foundation for a diversified economy, with robust MSME growth, and a more-resilient business environment;
  • To invest in critical physical, financial, digital, and innovation infrastructure, (3) to build a solid framework and enhancing capacities to strengthen security and ensure good governance;
  • To enable a vibrant, educated, and healthy population;
  • To investing in the social infrastructure and services required to alleviate poverty;
  • To promote development opportunities across States to minimize regional economic and social disparities.

Over the duration of the NDP, government focus will be directed towards sectors with the capacity to ease unemployment while making an impact on the sector and economy at large, with the aims of achieving an average economic growth of 4.6% by 2025, lifting 35 million Nigerians out of poverty, creating 21 million full-time jobs, and raising the revenue to GDP ratio to 15%.

The major planks of the plan, which should be of interest to entrepreneurs, are:

Economic Growth and Development

The economic growth and development plan will be implemented to stimulate the sectors of agriculture and food security; manufacturing; oil and gas; solid minerals, mining and steel development; culture, creative, hospitality and tourism (CCHT); and business environment, trade and competitiveness.

In agriculture and food security, the government intends to drive economic growth by introducing technology, innovation, and climate-smart practices to increase productivity. Some of their targets include increasing female participation in agriculture from 19.6% to 25% private sector investment from 5.1% of total private sector credit to 10%. To achieve all targets during the duration of the plan, there will be an estimated public investment of N1.46trn.

In manufacturing, government is working towards improving the sector’s infrastructure, stabilising the macroeconomy, and removing regulatory constraints in order to improve the overall environment of the sector. They have three targets to help them achieve this: increasing the contribution of the manufacturing sector to our GDP from 11.64% to 13%; increasing banks’ credit allocation to manufacturing from N3.2 trillion to N 6.5 trillion; improving value chain integration to promote domestic sourcing of manufacturing inputs by increasing the sector’s share of total exports from 7.7% to 20%. To achieve all targets during the duration of the plan, there will be an estimated public investment of N868.56bn.

In oil and gas, they are aiming for industry wide reforms that will lead to increased investor confidence and accelerated revenue production. The government wants to see the impact of their reforms across the oil and gas value chain and some of their targets include increased oil production from 2.03mbpd to 2.38mbpd and increased gas production from 7.92bscfpd13 to 15bscfpd. To achieve all targets during the duration of the plan, there will be an estimated public investment of N5.1trn.

In solid minerals, mining and steel development, the government is laying the foundations to create an atmosphere of environmentally sustainable growth and industrialisation in accordance with the Mining Roadmap of 2016. At the end of the implementation period, the minerals sector should be better integrated into Nigeria’s socio-economic fabric. One of the targets for the sector is to increase the number of mining enterprises established in the country from 6,300 to 8,100. To achieve all targets during the duration of the plan, there will be an estimated public investment of N201.6bn.

The government also aims to make the CCHT sector a key economic driver for the country and one of the top 20 CCHT sectors globally in terms of GDP by 2025. A key target for them is therefore to improve technical and financial support for the industry by increasing the number of creative hubs established across the country from 72 to 1161. To achieve all targets during the duration of the plan, there will be an estimated public investment of N114.24bn.

In business environment, trade and competitiveness, the government is working to eliminate a range of business environment impediments to increase private sector activity, job creation, investment flows, and productivity in hopes of making the business environment cost-effective and less bureaucratic. They will therefore be making effective and proactive policies and strategies to advance trade potential and create new markets for ‘Made in Nigeria’ goods and services while increasing the contribution of non-oil exports. The desired results of making these changes is that we improve our rankings in Ease of Doing Business from 131st to 100th and WEF global competitiveness ranking from 116th in 2019 to 100th by 2025.

Infrastructure

The infrastructure plan will be implemented to stimulate the sectors of transportation; power and alternative energy; digital economy; science, technology and innovation; and the financial sector.

With this plan, Nigeria is working to upgrade its existing transportation infrastructure for better integration, economic efficiency, social equity, and environmental stability. This should lead to reduced costs and time while increasing quality of service. Some of their targets include growing the total aviation passenger traffic from 17.5m to 45m and total throughput (excluding crude oil) by 5%. To achieve all targets during the duration of the plan, there will be an estimated public investment of N7.73trn.

In order to achieve the goal of Nigeria hitting 10,000MW in power generation, transmission, and distribution, the government is gearing up the power and alternative energy sector to create a reliable and sustainable supply of gas to power plants. This will of course mean the need for additional capacity and assets for power generation. But it also means that the government is turning to renewable energy with a target of 1,000MW for this alternative source. Some of their targets include raising the share of the population with access to electricity from 55.4% to 75% and the share of renewable electricity in comparison to total electricity from 13% to 23%. To achieve all targets during the duration of the plan, there will be an estimated public investment of N598bn.

In digital economy, the government will address critical sectoral challenges and work to make digitisation a key driver of national economic development strategies. Some of their targets include improving broadband penetration from 40% to 60% and encourage digital entrepreneurship by making financing for private equity and venture capital 1% of the GDP. To achieve all targets during the duration of the plan, there will be an estimated public investment of N150bn.

In science, technology and innovation, the government is interested in creating the conditions that will lead innovators, creators, scientists, and technologists to translate ideas into products and services that scale into national and global markets. Some of their targets include climbing up the Global Innovation Index to the top of lower middle-income countries from 117th out of 131 countries to 100th and the Knowledge and Technology Output Index from 120th out of 131 countries to 100th. To achieve all targets during the duration of the plan, there will be an estimated public investment of N924bn.

The government intends to support the stability growth, transformation, and development of the Nigerian economy by raising liquidity thresholds in each segment of the financial sector. They aim to provide direct debt financing for governments and businesses, and market valuation and equity funding for their companies and provide financing for sectors and clusters that might otherwise have been excluded from financing by banks and markets in order to achieve their many targets. To achieve all targets during the duration of the plan, there will be an estimated public investment of N1.54trn.

Public Administration

The public administration plan will be implemented to stimulate foreign policy and international economic relationships.

During the duration of the plan, Nigerian foreign policy will focus on national priorities and ambitions with an aim to be proactive, result-oriented, and citizen focused, while also prioritising foreign direct investment and export promotion. This will be achieved in part through continued support of the culture and creative industry to harness its cultural and economic potential and strengthening the participation of the private sector in engagements with counterparts in other African countries and beyond. To achieve all targets, there will be an estimated public investment of N57bn.

Human Capital Development

The human capital development plan will be implemented to stimulate education and human resources.

The plan’s major focus is on providing the best environment to get a good education from basics to tertiary and prepare employment age Nigerians to become part of the country’s workforce. However, attention is also being given to things like apprenticeship programmes which will prioritise skills development that can prepare budding entrepreneurs to turn passions into reality. Some of these programmes the government will be investing in include Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts and Mathematics (STEAM) and Technical, Vocational Education and Training (TVET) centres with particular attention paid to women enrolment. There will also be improved access to technological and entrepreneurial skills for MSMEs to boost their productivity. Furthermore, they intend to improve digital literacy proficiency to drive innovation, competitiveness and unlock the growth potential of various sectors. To achieve all targets during the duration of the plan, there will be an estimated public investment of N1.56trn.

Social Development

The social development plan will be implemented to stimulate environment and disaster management; women and gender equity; youth development; and employment and job creation.

For the duration of this plan, the aim with regards to environment and disaster management is to lay the necessary foundations to see Nigeria transition to a green economy by 2025. Some of the methods they will pursue include upscaling investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency and increasing the amount of recycled plastic per annum from less than 12% of total plastics used in the country to more than 25% of total plastics. To achieve all targets, there will be an estimated public investment of N220bn.

In women and gender equity, the government is working towards gender parity in Nigeria by strengthening and enforcing existing gender policies and promoting deeper integration of women into economic and social development. For women in business, this will mean the government will support the economic empowerment of women through skill building training, supporting MSMEs business viability and facilitating access to funds. To achieve all targets during the duration of the plan, there will be an estimated public investment of N108bn.

In order to reduce youth unemployment, increase their welfare and contribute to the growth and development of the country, the government is committed to implementing targeted academic and non-academic training initiatives under the youth development plan. Some of the methods they will pursue to achieve this include ensuring that the implementation of the National Development Plan in its entirety is youth-focused and introducing and improving relevant capacity building programmes for youths through academic, vocational, and entrepreneurship trainings. To achieve all targets during the duration of the plan, there will be an estimated public investment of N60bn.

In employment and job creation, the Nigerian government aims to ease access to financing for entrepreneurs especially MSMEs. They believe that increasing the number of businesses registered in Nigeria from 3.1 million to 4 million will lead to more job creation. They also want to increase the number of new businesses that remain operational 5 years after opening from 45% to 50%. To achieve all targets during the duration of the plan, there will be an estimated public investment of N351bn.